‘I Knew It All Along…Didn’t I?’ – Understanding Hindsight Bias
The fourth-quarter comeback to win the game. The tumor that appeared on a second scan. The guy in accounting who was secretly embezzling company funds. The situation may be different each time, but we hear ourselves say it over and over again: “I knew it all along.”
The problem is that too often we actually didn’t know it all along, we only feel as though we did. The phenomenon, which researchers refer to as “hindsight bias,” is one of the most widely studied decision traps and has been documented in various domains, including medical diagnoses, accounting and auditing decisions, athletic competition, and political strategy.
In a new article in the September 2012 issue of Perspectives on Psychological Science, a journal of the Association for Psychological Science, psychological scientists Neal Roese of the Kellogg School of Management at Northwestern University and Kathleen Vohs of the Carlson School of Management at the University of Minnesota review the existing research on hindsight bias, exploring the various factors that make us so susceptible to the phenomenon and identifying a few ways we might be able to combat it. This article is the first overview to draw insights together from across different disciplines.
Roese and Vohs propose that there are three levels of hindsight bias that stack on top of each other, from basic memory processes up to higher-level inference and belief. The first level of hindsight bias, memory distortion, involves misremembering an earlier opinion or judgment (“I said it would happen”). The second level, inevitability, centers on our belief that the event was inevitable (“It had to happen”). And the third level, foreseeability, involves the belief that we personally could have foreseen the event (“I knew it would happen”).
The researchers argue that certain factors fuel our tendency toward hindsight bias. Research shows that we selectively recall information that confirms what we know to be true and we try to create a narrative that makes sense out of the information we have. When this narrative is easy to generate, we interpret that to mean that the outcome must have been foreseeable. Furthermore, research suggests that we have a need for closure that motivates us to see the world as orderly and predictable and to do whatever we can to promote a positive view of ourselves.
Ultimately, hindsight bias matters because it gets in the way of learning from our experiences.
“If you feel like you knew it all along, it means you won’t stop to examine why something really happened,” observes Roese. “It’s often hard to convince seasoned decision makers that they might fall prey to hindsight bias.”
Hindsight bias can also make us overconfident in how certain we are about our own judgments. Research has shown, for example, that overconfident entrepreneurs are more likely to take on risky, ill-informed ventures that fail to produce a significant return on investment.
While our inclination to believe that we “knew it all along” is often harmless, it can have important consequences for the legal system, especially in cases of negligence, product liability, and medical malpractice. Studies have shown, for example, that hindsight bias routinely afflicts judgments about a defendant’s past conduct.
And technology may make matters worse. “Paradoxically, the technology that provides us with simplified ways of understanding complex patterns – from financial modeling of mortgage foreclosures to tracking the flow of communications among terrorist networks – may actually increase hindsight bias,” says Roese.
So what, if anything, can we do about it?
Roese and Vohs suggest that considering the opposite may be an effective way to get around our cognitive fault, at least in some cases. When we are encouraged to consider and explain how outcomes that didn’t happen could have happened, we counteract our usual inclination to throw out information that doesn’t fit with our narrative. As a result, we may be able to reach a more nuanced perspective of the causal chain of events.
I am pretty sure thousands of people uses hindsight bias ” I knew it all along” I myself say that a lot of time. Being from the Caribbean ( Jamaica)I didn’t know it was called the hindsight bias , I learned that not too long ago. Old school people from the Caribbean would just call it know it all.
You know I never looked at the hindsight bias in the way Roese and Vohs looked at it if you feel like you knew it all along why ask why or why bother to research. I am not saying that hindsight bias is the worst thing but one is only setting them selves up for a great down fall. That could lead to bad habit like gambling.
When i first read the publication on hindsight bias i was inclined to disagree with the authors. My main opposition was centered around their second level on the inevitability of certain events based on the first level. A simple example is knowing that if i respond angrily to something my son’s does i would get a combative response.But when i played the different events i began to agree with Roece and Vohs. I do end up distorting my memory of different events which i use to reference his actions so his response is not necessarily predictable or inevitable. I need to stop to reason why something happened rather than assume i knew it would happen. Old ways don’t open new doors.
I agree with the Hindsight Bias because it lots of people do say “I knew it all along” but had no clue in the first place.
An example from my own life is when I was pregnant last year, I worried (naturally) that I would miscarry. A couple of days before my first ultrasound, I googled it “missed miscarriage” (where you still feel pregnant but your body hasn’t quite recognized that the baby stopped growing), and so I read about it for hours trying to reassure myself that even though I had moments that I felt “less pregnant”, (less sick or tired or whatever) things were probably fine. It ended up that the baby did indeed stop developing a few weeks before and we found out at the ultrasound appointment. So it was true. I miscarried naturally a week later, but when we found out I kept thinking “I guess I knew all along, why would I have googled that?” But truly there was no way for me to “know”. I worried about certain things with my other 2 normal pregnancies that never came to pass so I’m trying not to put too much stock into “intuition.” I think what we think of as intuition can be a type of hindsight bias too.
thank you! Your comment makes total sense to me.
I think hindsight bias is an important thing because it helps us learn from our experience. For example, I misunderstood my GF two years ago, thinking that she might have lied to me about something. I tried to find out if I was right or wrong. But to be honest, the inside part of me still thought she didn’t. And then at the end, after asking few of her close friends, I found that I was wrong, and she never lied to me.
So, I think this can be considered to be a hindsight bias too.
I agree with the Hindsight Bias because it reminds me of my own experiment. For example, taking an exam in the high school,the one of the questions I was not sure the answer. Waiting until after the answer is out to prove that is the right, I will feel that the beginning is to determine the answer (distortion of memory). So, I think this can be considered to be a hindsight bias too.
I knew all along that was going to be the outcome of this article.
Hindsight Bias, I read some of the other comments,Interesting as a young adult many moons ago my Dad asked of me only in his love.I would like as bowlers alike! Bowl on the same team! My response was no not now. I love my Dad! THAT NEvER SHOULD HAVE BEEN MY RESPONSE
LOVE YA DEARLY!!! “DAD AND MOM”
After reading about the Hindsight bias, I found myself being guilty of it. I have never heard of the term hindsight bias but the “knew it all along” is familiar. One reason for me being guilty of the hindsight bias is because a lot of time in my job I would say that I knew it all along. Roses and Vohs second level “it had to happen” is something that I would usually say. Growing up and following a certain religious practice I have learned that when something happens, it means “it had to happen,” or in other words, it meant that was written in one’s destiny. It has never occurred to me that it was called the hindsight bias.
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