Forecasting

Using the Wisdom of Crowds to Improve Hiring

The British statistician Francis Galton applied statistical methods to many different subjects during the 1800s, including the use of fingerprinting for identification, correlational calculus, twins, blood transfusions, criminality, meteorology and, perhaps most famously, human intelligence. Galton, who was an ardent eugenicist, believed that intelligence was a trait that only a More

Stereotypes Skew Our Predictions of Others’ Pains and Pleasures

Every day, millions of people – including senators, doctors, and teachers — make consequential decisions that depend on predicting how other people will feel when they experience gains or setbacks. New research looking at events ranging from college football games to US elections shows that our predictions about others are More

The Power of Precise Predictions

The New York Times: IS there a solution to this country’s polarized politics? Consider the debate over the nuclear deal with Iran, which was one of the nastiest foreign policy fights in recent memory. There was apocalyptic rhetoric, multimillion-dollar lobbying on both sides and a near-party-line Senate vote. But in More