The Wall Street Journal:
People have been hunting for proof of the hot hand in basketball longer than Stephen Curry has been alive. The search has lasted three decades and exhausted almost all options. But the results were usually the same. There was no evidence of the hot hand. A player who made a shot was no more likely to make his next shot.
Then something strange happened this summer. Economists, psychologists and statisticians started talking about a new paper on basketball. It claimed that the hot hand really does exist. But what made it truly mind-boggling was that the authors used the simplest scientific method: coin flips.
The new paper, written by Joshua Miller and Adam Sanjurjo, begins with a question. Toss a coin four times. Write down the percentage of heads on the flips coming immediately after heads. Repeat that process one million times. On average, what is that percentage?
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