Bring an Umbrella: Testing the Predictive Accuracy of Affective Forecasting Using Multilevel Vector Autoregressive Models

Affective forecasting examines how accurate people are at predicting future emotions. This can be subject to systemic biases. Ecological momentary assessment (EMA) can reduce biases. This study evaluated how predictive affective EMA data is as a multilevel autoregressive model. Results showed participants could significantly predict future affect. Implications are discussed.