APS

30th APS Annual Convention · 2018

Is It a Judgment of Representativeness? Re-Examining the Birth Sequence Problem

San Francisco, CA · May 2018

Poster · Cognitive

  • Lim Leong
    University of California, San Diego
  • Johannes Müller-Trede
    IESE Business School, Barcelona
  • Craig McKenzie
    University of California, San Diego

Abstract

When estimating the likelihood of a birth sequence, people are thought to rely on the representativeness heuristic. Contrary to this interpretation, the results of three experiments demonstrate that the majority of participants judged the more representative sequence as less likely when the direction of comparison is manipulated.

Judgment and Decision Making

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