APS
30th APS Annual Convention · 2018
Is It a Judgment of Representativeness? Re-Examining the Birth Sequence Problem
- Lim Leong
University of California, San Diego - Johannes Müller-Trede
IESE Business School, Barcelona - Craig McKenzie
University of California, San Diego
Abstract
When estimating the likelihood of a birth sequence, people are thought to rely on the representativeness heuristic. Contrary to this interpretation, the results of three experiments demonstrate that the majority of participants judged the more representative sequence as less likely when the direction of comparison is manipulated.
Judgment and Decision Making