APS
30th APS Annual Convention · 2018
Base-Rate Use in Conditional Probability Estimates
- Dana Chesney
St. John's University - Carmel Brunswick
St. John's University - Natalie Obrecht
William Paterson University - Jessica Randel
St. John's University - Linh Nguyen
St. John's University - Humaira Hasan
St. John's University
Abstract
We show that participants’ mean naïve probability estimates are consistent with each other, based on what would be predicted by Bayes theorem. Further, providing base-rates has a small but significant effect on conditional probability estimates, bringing estimates more in line with Bayesian posterior estimates based on these base-rates.
Judgment and Decision Making
