APS
30th APS Annual Convention · 2018
Limited and Inconsistent Evidence of "Hot-Hand" Behavior in Amateur Bowlers
- Mark Stellmack
University of Minnesota - Andrew Byrne
University of Minnesota - Nikita Salovich
Northwestern University - Adrienne Manbeck
National Institute of Mental Health
Abstract
Many people believe in “hot-hand” behavior among athletes, in which there is an increasing probability of success following success. We found little evidence of such behavior in amateur bowlers (43 bowlers, up to 96 games each), suggesting that belief in the phenomenon represents an error in perceptions of probabilistic behavior.
Judgment and Decision Making
