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Superforecasters: The Art of Accurate Predictions
Will Venezuela cut gasoline subsidies? Will the US Federal Reserve raise interest rates before the end of the year? Your guess is as good as mine, unless you happen to be what University of Pennsylvania psychology professor Philip Tetlock has identified as a “superforecaster.” When we decide to change jobs, make an investment, or launch a business, we make that decision based on what we think the future will hold. The problem is, we’re just not that good at accurately anticipating the future. We’re susceptible to hindsight bias, we’re overconfident about what we really know, and our predictions are often self-serving.
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Boys and Girls, Constrained by Toys and Costumes
The New York Times: A web search for Halloween costumes of scientists produces only boys wearing lab coats and goggles. A search for nursing costumes turns up girls in skirts with stethoscopes. Cats and cupcakes are also girls, while sharks and astronauts are boys. The same gender division exists not just in toys — blue toolboxes and trucks for boys, pink play kitchens and dolls for girls — but also in nearly every other children’s product, including baby blankets, diapers and toothbrushes. ... Lynn Liben of Penn State University and Lacey Hilliard of Tufts University studied preschool students. In some of the classrooms, teachers made no distinctions between boys and girls.
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Here’s the simple strategy extroverts use to win people over
Business Insider: Scientists as well as laypeople have long known that extroverts tend to do a better job of connecting with other people, especially when they first meet them. Yet until recently, no one's been able to pinpoint what exactly extroverts do that helps them build strong social ties. Now, new research from Duke University, cited by the Association for Psychological Science, suggests that the answer is surprisingly simple: It's a matter of mimicry, or copying the body language of your conversation partner. Read the whole story: Business Insider
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Three Words You Shouldn’t Say About Yourself
Medium: When we interact with other people, what do we want? As I started to study that question, I came across a wonderful quote. “There are two kinds of people in the world,” Robert Benchley wrote. “Those who divide the world into two kinds of people, and those who don’t.” Psychologists have a bad habit of oversimplifying people. If I truly wanted to capture the richness of the human condition, I needed more than two categories. Imagine my delight, then, when I found evidence that around the world, there are not two… but three styles of interaction. Read the whole story: Medium
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Scaring People Can Make Them Healthier, But It Isn’t Always The Way To Go
NPR: The use of fear in public health campaigns has been controversial for decades. A campaign with gruesome photos of a person dying of lung cancer to combat smoking might make people think twice about lighting up. But opponents would argue that the photos are too visceral, along with being morally objectionable. Fear-based campaigns are indeed effective at changing both attitudes and behavior, according to a review of more than a half-century of research. But that effectiveness isn't the only thing to consider when deciding whether to use fear-based appeals, researchers say. Read the whole story: NPR
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Believing What You Don’t Believe
The New York Times: HOW is it that people can believe something that they know is not true? For example, Kansas City Royals fans, sitting in front of their television sets in Kansas City, surely know that there is no possible connection between their lucky hats (or socks, or jerseys) and the outcome of a World Series game at Citi Field in New York, 1,200 miles away. Yet it would be impossible to persuade many of them to watch the game without those lucky charms. It’s not that people don’t understand that it’s scientifically impossible for their lucky hats to help their team hit a home run or turn a double play — all but the most superstitious would acknowledge that.
