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Why We’re Lousy Predictors
Smart Money: Humans love predictions. We speculate for years about who will win the next presidential election. We fill out Final Four tournament brackets. We check the seven-day forecast even though the morning newscast is often wrong about the weather for that night. And, of course, we constantly try to guess whether an investment is on its way up or way down. The problem with all this predicting: We're terrible at it. Studies routinely show that humans are generally worse at forecasting things like elections, basketball tournaments and stock-market moves than a chimp with a dartboard. But why are we so bad at it?
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Changes to Police Lineup Procedures Cut Eyewitness Mistakes, Study Says
The New York Times: The push for procedures to help overcome the weaknesses of eyewitness identifications gains support with a new study being released on Monday that sees significant advantages in techniques promoted by many experts and a growing number of police departments. The new report, based on actual cases in the field, suggests that photographs presented one by one by a person not directly connected with a case significantly reduced identifications of fillers (people known not to be the suspect) from 18 percent in simultaneous lineups to 12 percent in sequential ones.
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The sink’s over here, doc
Lowell Sun: While hospital patients would like to believe they are in good hands, they might not be in clean hands. Research shows that less than 50 percent of hospital workers adhere to hand-hygiene guidelines. In fact, on average, they only wash or use hand sanitizer one-third to half the time they ideally should. Reminding health-care workers that it is the patient they are there to protect increases hand hygiene, according to a recent study.
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Self-compassion helps heal post-divorce blues
Yahoo! India: Self-compassion and the ability to let painful emotions pass helps heal post divorce blues, a new study suggests. This trait 'can promote resilience and positive outcomes in the face of divorce,' says University of Arizona psychologist David A. Sbarra, who led the study with Hillary L. Smith and Matthias R. Mehl. 'The surprising part here is that when we look at a bunch of positive characteristics (self-esteem, resistance to depression, optimism, or ease with relationships), this one characteristic -self-compassion - uniquely predicts good outcomes,' adds Sbarra.
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Taxes les riches – Quel bonheur!
Le Petit Journal: Avec sa "taxe Buffett", le président américain veut faire payer davantage les plus riches pour réduire sa dette. Si l'idée ne fait pas sourire les républicains, elle pourrait remonter le moral des Américains. C'est en tout ca ce que révèle une étude, publiée par Psychological Science, qui met en lumière une corrélation entre taxation des plus riches et bien-être de la population. Pour être heureux, soyons taxés ! L'équipe de chercheurs de l'université de Virgine, menée par Shigehiro Oishi s'est basée sur les résultats de sondages de l'institut américain Gallup qui a comparé les niveaux de bien-être de 54 pays.
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Q & A With Psychological Scientist Alan Kazdin (Part 1)
Yale University psychological scientist Alan Kazdin and his co-author Stacey Blase have called for a drastic change to the way in which the United States treats mental illness. Read about Kazdin’s research and watch a video from the 2010 APS Annual Convention here. Yesterday, we asked our twitter and facebook followers to ask Kazdin questions about his research. Well – we got a great response, from evidence-based psychotherapy to cellphone applications...you have definitely put him to work! Below is part 1 of Kazdin’s Q & A: 1. Is there really an established evidence base for what works in psychotherapy?
