APS
2026 APS Annual Convention · 2026
Counterfactual Thinking and Hindsight Bias In an Undergraduate Research Course
- Edward Munnich
University of San Francisco - Alyssa Guevara
University of San Francisco - Samantha Hernandez
University of San Francisco - Hayleigh Sim
University of San Francisco - Tauane Tome
University of San Francisco - Cade Gravett
University of San Francisco - Henna Kalumbu
University of San Francisco
Abstract
The replication crisis highlighted the importance of not taking any single research finding as conclusive. However, hindsight bias might obscure alternative possible outcomes. We expect that students in Research Design will develop abilities to consider alternative possible outcomes and show less hindsight bias than those in an immediate prerequisite (Statistics).
