Perceived vs. Lived History In Times of Crisis: Divergences Between Public Beliefs and Societal Trends during COVID-19

To examine perception-reality gaps between public perceptions of societal change under high heightened uncertainty (i.e. COVID-19), we asked 644 Americans to estimate change across thirteen domains. We found that in only five domains did participants correctly estimate direction, and that accuracy was associated with task deliberation, metacognitive engagement, and confidence.