APS

APS Virtual Poster Showcase

Methodological Innovations and New Applications of Subjective Probability and Confidence Judgments

Friday, May 22, 2020 · Virtual

Oral · Cognitive

Subjective judgments of probabilities of future events and of epistemic confidence play a major role in research on human judgment and decision, as well as in many practical applications of decision analysis and forecasting. This symposium includes 4 presentations that highlight new methodological developments and novel applications of these judgments.

Chairs & Discussants

  • David BudescuChair
    Fordham University

Presentations

  1. Estimation of Subjective Probability Distributions with Ratio Judgments and Scaling (RJS) MethodologyDavid Budescu, Yuyu Fan
  2. Effect of Task Type on Confidence JudgmentsYigal Attali, David Budescu, Lazar Stankov
  3. Developing and Validating a Method of Coherence-Based Judgment AggregationDavid Budescu, Emily Ho
  4. Arithmetic Computation with Probability Words and Numbers David Mandel, Mandeep Dhami, Serena Tran, Daniel Irwin