Heuristics And Biases

Experience Buying and Selling Reduces Financially Costly Biases

When it comes to decisions about buying and selling, businesses are supposed to use evidence and observations about the market for goods to make profitable decisions. In classical economics, it’s assumed that people make financial decisions based on rational rules of thumb—buy low, sell high, diversify portfolios, that kind of More

Superforecasters: The Art of Accurate Predictions

Will Venezuela cut gasoline subsidies? Will the US Federal Reserve raise interest rates before the end of the year? Your guess is as good as mine, unless you happen to be what University of Pennsylvania psychology professor Philip Tetlock has identified as a “superforecaster.” When we decide to change jobs More